270: Fuck Florida
Just looking over the electoral college map, which I may do religiously from now on, there's a pretty good chance that Kerry can lose Florida and still beat Bush.
Here's the states Kerry needs, in order of his likelihood of getting them.
State / Kerry % / Bush % / Nader % / Undecided % /
Massachusetts 54/30/5/11
Illinois 53/37/4/7
New York 52/34/7/5
Maryland 52/38/2/8
California 51/39/4/6
Vermont 51/36/4/9
Maine 49/39/3/9
Rhode Island 49/25/5/21
Ohio 49/43/2/6
Iowa 46/42/3/9
Oregon 44/39/4/13
Minnesota 44/41/2/13
Connecticut 46/36/8/10
New Jersey 46/40/7/7
Washington State 46/42/2/10
Delaware (N/A)
Washington DC (N/A)
Hawaii (N/A)
West Virginia 47/44/3/6
Michigan 45/43/3/9
Pennsylvania 44/43/7/5
That's 270. There is also room for a New Hampshire / Delaware switch, but New Hampshire tends to run red far too often for my personal tastes, so I gave it to Bush. If Bush makes any gains in Pennsylvania, then Kerry is cooked unless he has Florida. Even New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and New Mexico going Blue wouldn't fix it.
Here's the states Kerry needs, in order of his likelihood of getting them.
State / Kerry % / Bush % / Nader % / Undecided % /
Massachusetts 54/30/5/11
Illinois 53/37/4/7
New York 52/34/7/5
Maryland 52/38/2/8
California 51/39/4/6
Vermont 51/36/4/9
Maine 49/39/3/9
Rhode Island 49/25/5/21
Ohio 49/43/2/6
Iowa 46/42/3/9
Oregon 44/39/4/13
Minnesota 44/41/2/13
Connecticut 46/36/8/10
New Jersey 46/40/7/7
Washington State 46/42/2/10
Delaware (N/A)
Washington DC (N/A)
Hawaii (N/A)
West Virginia 47/44/3/6
Michigan 45/43/3/9
Pennsylvania 44/43/7/5
That's 270. There is also room for a New Hampshire / Delaware switch, but New Hampshire tends to run red far too often for my personal tastes, so I gave it to Bush. If Bush makes any gains in Pennsylvania, then Kerry is cooked unless he has Florida. Even New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and New Mexico going Blue wouldn't fix it.
